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Stats

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MANAGEMENT 306-03 FINAL EXAMINATION Fall 2013 (SHOW ALL WORK OR NO CREDIT WILL BE GIVEN) 1. (20 points) a. Using simple exponential smoothing, Mace’s small business made a forecast in April of $40,000 sales. In May, Mace’s actually sold $60,000. The company now wants to use an exponential smoothing forecasting function with the highest noise dampening among =0.2, =0.4, =0.6 to forecast June sales. Can you? If yes, do so. If you cannot, state what additional information is needed. (5 points) b. The quarterly sales for a specific business software package, over the past two years, is as follows: Compute the seasonal indexes. Quarter1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 (5 pts) Year 2002 1690 940 2625 2500 Year 2003 1800 900 2900 2360 c. The trend portion of quarterly sales, in 1000s of units, for MEMEX company is given as: TR = -0.40 + 1.0t Sales also exhibit seasonal variations. The seasonal indices are 1.2, 0.9, 1.3, 1.0 for the first, second, third, and fourth quarters respectively. Assume that the cyclical index is 1.0 and that the random factor has no influence on the forecast. If t = 1 at the first quarter of 2009, how many thousands of units should the company expect to sell during the 1st and 4th quarters of 2014? (1) Use the full Decomposition Method. (4 pts); (2) Use only the Trend Projection Method. (3pts); (3) What is the quarterly seasonal influence, in units, for each of those two quarters? (3 pts) 2. (20 points) There are 5 cars which must be serviced at the SPEED’s automobile service center. SPEED’s does Body Work, Oil Changes, and Tune-ups. The shop is organized so that Body Work is always done before changing the oil (if needed), and Oil Change is done prior to any Tune-up (if needed). The cars are to be serviced as follows: Operation Car I.D. Service Time(hours) DUE DATE Arrival Body Oil- Tune (hours) Order Work Change -Up A —— 0 2 3 ———–8 ——— 3rd B —— 4 0 2 ———–12 ——– 1st C —— 2 2 0 ———–5 ——– 4th D —— 0 4 2 ———–8 ——– 2nd E —— 3 3 0 ———–13 ——– 5th If multiple cars are waiting to be served at the same operation, at any point in time, the manager wants to use FCFS (first-come-first-served) to determine which car has processing priority at that particular operation. Process these jobs (8 points) and determine: (a)The average length of time that a car remains at SPEED’s? (b)The total time each car must spend waiting for service? (c)On average, how many cars you would expect to find at SPEED’s, at any point in time, while the center is operating; assume that, upon completion, each car immediately leaves the service center. (d)On average, how late is a car delivered to its owner. (3 points each) 3. (20 points) The assembly of MBM’s 56K Converter requires that 9 tasks be performed, as listed below. How should these tasks be grouped into work-stations, if the weekly demand for converters is 360 units, and the plant operates for 20 productive hours each week, 60 minutes each hour? MBM’s work-week has 4 equally long days. Use Largest Task Time as the primary, Largest # of Successors as the secondary, and Alphabetic Order as the tertiary priority rules. Clearly show the number and task content of each work-station. Immediate Task Time Immediate Task Time Task Predecessor(s) (minutes) Task Predecessor(s) (minutes) A – 1.0 F C 1.0 B A 1.0 G D,E,F 1.0 C A 2.0 H B 2.0 D C 1.0 I G,H 1.0 E C 3.0 Balance the Line and determine its: (a) Cycle Time; (b) Output; (c) Efficiency; (d) Total Idle Time, in hours, for the week. 4. (40 points) TRUE/FALSE & Multiple Choice (2 points each); 15,16,17,18 (3 points each) 1. A CPM diagram is a very useful tool for schedu

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